Driverless car future means no licence

NICK TABAKOFF
August 9, 2017
The Australian

People who do not hold driver’s licences, such as the young, elderly and disabled, will potentially be allowed to control driverless cars with no steering wheels or pedals in Australia by 2025.

The claim is contained in the first detailed study into Australia’s autonomous vehicle future by the nation’s peak motoring body, the NRMA, exclusively obtained by The Australian.

The six-month NRMA study — conducted in consultation with governments, regulators, numerous car manufacturers, car-related bodies, major technology companies and start-ups — forecasts a future where private car ownership would drop dramatically in favour of shared driverless cars, leased on a “subscription-style” basis. 

The NRMA estimates one million steering wheel-free “fully autonomous” vehicles will be on Australian roads by 2035.

The study has also found:

The age of the autonomous vehicle could begin on Australian roads much earlier than originally expected, with a first generation of “autopilot-style” driverless vehicles to arrive in just three years;

Driver’s licences could ultimately become redundant;

From the mid-2020s, people may have a car drive them overnight from Sydney to Brisbane or Melbourne while they sleep and;

Car companies are collectively investing hundreds of billions of dollars to compete with major technology companies such as Google in a cutthroat race that is bringing forward the date that driverless cars rule our roads. 

According to NRMA president Kyle Loades, the biggest ­obstacle to a driverless future is how cars are now regulated. “Our current system of road rules and car insurance is based on a human driver controlling an automobile, so when an autonomous vehicle comes into the mix, there is a range of unknowns,” Mr Loades said.

The Australian understands the federal government’s ­National Transport Commission is currently examining Australian road rules, insurance implications, ethical scenarios, and data and privacy issues specifically in relation to the issue of fully driverless cars.

It is believed the NTC is ­examining the issuing of recommendations to governments for changes to road rules as early as 2020, to allow more freedom for drivers of “level 4” autonomous vehicles expected to come in that year. These “level 4” vehicles would allow drivers to operate cars in “autopilot mode”, which means humans would only take over the vehicle in certain situations when prompted.

Global carmakers including Volkswagen, General Motors, Daimler, Toyota and Nissan, are planning to introduce such vehicles from that year.

The study found the post-2025 world is likely to see radical changes in how cars are used, particularly by those who currently cannot drive. “People with limited mobility such as the elderly or people with disability will perhaps be the greatest beneficiaries from the advent of autonomous vehicles,” the report states. “People with epilepsy, narcolepsy, sensory disability, as well as the elderly and the young who are unable to hold a traditional driver’s licence, will be able to use point-to-point transport that meets their needs.” 

Mr Loades said this could see cars that require full driving skills become a thing of the past, possibly as early as 2040. “Eventually due to the major safety, accessibility and productivity benefits, we see a point where these vehicles will be totally widespread, and driving a vehicle as we know it today may be highly unusual,” he said. He said that could mean driver’s licences will eventually become the “exception rather than the rule”.

“Driving as we know it now may be restricted to race tracks or special recreational days,” he said. “By the late 2020s, it’s likely to come to a point where you jump in your autonomous vehicle to go from Sydney to Brisbane or Melbourne at, say, 10pm, go to sleep while your vehicle drives you, and save on a night’s accommodation.”

The report’s co-author, Rob Giltinan, a senior adviser in policy and public affairs at the NRMA, said that until the technology was perfected, there were unknowns around how driverless cars would react in certain situations, such as accidents where there are multiple people or vehicles involved. “About 94 per cent of accidents are caused by human error,” he said. “At some point in the future, that will reduce to nearly zero because of driverless cars.” 

The car industry and technology companies have already started to release vehicles with limited automation. Some cars on the market allow emergency autonomous braking, self-parking, adaptive cruise control and lane change-assist functions.

But Mr Giltinan said that by 2020, car companies are likely to exert more pressure on governments for regulatory change to “allow increased hands-free driving, given the more advanced level 4 vehicles that will be available then”.

By 2035, with potentially one million driverless cars on the road, overall car ownership is likely to drop dramatically, he said. “We see autonomous vehicles provided to consumers as fleets, negating the need for privately-owned vehicles,” he said. “People will access cars rather like a subscription service. Think Foxtel or Netflix. That is probably how we will use cars in the future, and we will think of them with more of a door-to-door mentality.”