Pandemic plan as virus spreads

Phillip Coorey and Andrew Tillett

Feb 24, 2020

AFR

Treasurer Josh Frydenberg said sectors affected by the coronavirus will rebound quickly once the crisis has passed, but the situation shows little sign of ending with the government considering extending travel bans beyond China and planning for the crisis to be declared a global pandemic.

Chief medical officer Brendan Murphy said state and federal governments had global pandemic plans ready to enact and were “preparing as a nation for every eventuality”.

Under the plans, doctors would set up specially designated “fever clinics” to treat the sick, hospital wards would be made available to isolate cases and authorities would have the power to designate quarantine zones.

Professor Murphy said authorities would look at a number of factors before deciding whether further travel restrictions from other countries should be introduced, including the size of the outbreak, the profile of those falling sick and the risk of importing the disease into Australia.

A surge in cases in pockets of South Korea, Italy and Iran has sparked fears among health authorities that new fronts are opening up in the fight against the deadly virus.

“We don’t want to rule out anything. Clearly you cannot isolate a country from a large number of countries,” Professor Murphy said. “But you have to look at the proportionate risk of the number of cases in those countries, and the capacity of that country to control them.

“We know at the moment the South Koreans have strong measures to isolate the main epicentre of that outbreak, and we’re watching that closely.”

Professor Murphy said the recommended 14-day quarantine period would not be extended despite suggestions the incubation period was longer than first thought after one Chinese man had the virus for 27 days before showing symptoms.

In Saudi Arabia, where the Treasurer has been discussing the effects of the virus with fellow G20 finance ministers, Mr Frydenberg said the longer the travel bans were in place, the greater the economic damage.

Treasurer Josh Frydenberg has said events outside his control had affected the budget bottom line. Alex Ellinghausen

Earlier this month, the Reserve Bank of Australia estimated the disruption would shave 0.2 per cent off economic growth for this quarter. Mr Frydenberg did not discount that figure growing.

“Treasury is still engaging in consultation with key stakeholders,” he told CNBC International.

“We will continue to monitor the situation. The length of the travel restrictions will be a factor.”

Mr Frydenberg said the impact would be “significant” but he noted sectors such as education and tourism, which were affected by the SARS outbreak, rebounded quickly.

“I’m confident that we’ll get through this,” he said.

Virus tensions

However, on Monday more than $50 billion was wiped off the ASX and Australians were told to avoid coronavirus hot spots in South Korea after the government elevated the travel advice for Japan and South Korea.

It urged Australians to exercise a high degree of caution in both countries and to reconsider travelling to the Korean city of Daegu and county of Cheongdo.

Australia’s chief medical officer, Professor Brendan Murphy, is ruling nothing out.

The spread of the disease in South Korea, Italy and Iran has injected an unwanted source of tension into the government’s deliberations as it leans towards relaxing its travel ban to allow Chinese university students to enter Australia amid worries from the education sector over the financial impact.

Air New Zealand announced on Monday it was suspending flights to South Korea. Korean Air and Asiana are the only airlines flying direct between Australia and South Korea.

It could go either way, depending how quickly things can be contained in Italy, Iran and South Korea.

— Raina MacIntyre, University of NSW

The Morrison government introduced a ban three weeks ago on non-citizens who had spent time in China during the previous 14 days from entering Australia, which authorities credit for helping contain coronavirus locally despite Beijing’s anger.

The Health Department said a pandemic declaration by the World Health Organisation would not trigger any automatic travel restrictions and any decisions on that front would still be up to the government.

Too late to close borders

But one infectious disease expert warned if the WHO did label coronavirus a pandemic, there would be little point persisting with travel restrictions because it meant the disease was being spread readily.

University of NSW infectious disease specialist Raina MacIntyre said Australia only implemented its China travel restrictions after thousands of people had already tested positive to coronavirus.

She said if the disease took off in Australia it would be too late to continue travel restrictions.

Professor MacIntyre said a pandemic declaration would see efforts switch from containment to mitigation and could see measures such as schools being closed and people told to avoid public events.

While coronavirus is present on multiple continents, Professor MacIntyre said the disease also had to have sustained transmission to qualify as a pandemic.

“It’s touch and go at the moment. It could go either way, depending how quickly things can be contained in Italy, Iran and South Korea,” she said.

“A lot of the cases haven’t travelled to China, which suggests there is sustained transmission in the community.”