Electric vehicle targets likely to fail

AFR – Monday, 4 Jan 2021 – Page 7

The failure of the Morrison government to provide incentives to buy electric vehicles will jeopardise Australia’s attempts to curb transport emissions to meet international climate targets, according to an industry lobby group.  The failure of the Morrison government to provide incentives to buy electric vehicles will jeopardise Australia’s attempts to curb transport emissions to meet international climate targets, according to an industry lobby group.

While Prime Minister Scott Morrison and Energy Minister Angus Taylor said Australia was on track to ‘‘ meet and beat’ ’ its target of 26 to 28 per cent carbon reduction on 2005 levels by 2030, Electric Vehicle Council of Australia chief executive Behyad Jafari said flawed projections on transport emissions could put this in doubt.

Under the emissions projection report released by the federal government last month, the uptake of electric vehicles is projected to increase from 1 per cent in 2020 to 26 per cent in 2030.

Mr Jafari said the predicted ambitious uptake of EVs by the end of the decade – which would help the transport sector limit its emission increases to 6 million tonnes – was unlikely given the current policy settings.

‘‘ The really disappointing thing is we have the government picking and choosing a projection to help them reach a number,’’ Mr Jafari said.

‘‘ It’s sort of reverse-engineering their way to say they are going to meet their climate targets.’’

The report showed the electricity sector – the biggest emitter of carbon in Australia – was on track to reduce its emissions by 60 million tonnes by 2030. But other sectors such as transport (up 6 million tonnes) and fugitive emissions (from extracting fossil fuels, such as LNG; up 4 million tonnes) were moving in the wrong direction.

Mr Jafari said the government’s ‘‘ hands off’ ’ approach to EVs – leaving it to the market to help determine whether drivers will shift from conventional internal combustion engine cars – would not help boost the uptake to a quarter of cars by the end of the decade.

‘‘ This is not going to all happen in 2029. We need to start laying the foundations today. That clearly isn’t happening,’’ he said.

‘‘ Those very assumptions that the federal government is using expected that we would be at double the market share of electric vehicles in 2020.’’

Electric vehicles make up only 0.6 per cent of new car purchases in Australia, compared to the global average of 3.5 per cent, but other countries have introduced tough policies such as the UK which wants to ban petrol cars by 2030.

Transport emissions fell by 7 million tonnes in Australia last year because of lower economic activity from COVID-19 and associated lockdowns, but are expected to rebound from 2022 to peak at 101 million tonnes in 2026, before declining to 100 million tonnes by 2030.

Heavy-duty truck and rail emissions were not really affected by the coronavirus , according to the emissions report, and will continue to grow over the decade and be 1 million tonnes higher by 2030.

The uptake of electric vehicles could also be threatened by South Australia and Victoria considering new taxes to help make up for the future shortfall in petrol excise.

Both states are considering a charge per kilometre for electric vehicles to be paid by drivers annually, but are yet to draft laws.

Mr Jafari said the federal government emissions modelling did not take into account the new state taxes which studies indicate could decrease EV uptake by between 25 and 38 per cent.

He said the federal or state governments should encourage the uptake of EVs in the same way they supported rooftop solar schemes 10 years ago.

The Morrison government released its Future Fuels Strategy late last month, outlining how the Commonwealth was going to help deliver infrastructure such as charging stations for EVs through a $71.9 million fund.

The fund, in collaboration with the private sector, would aim to address public ‘‘ charging black spots’’ .

The Australian Renewable Energy Agency has already committed $21 million to two major projects to install battery electric vehicle charging stations powered by renewable energy along Australia’s national highways.

‘‘ Ensuring consumer confidence in buying new vehicle technologies is a priority for the government,’’ it said in the report. The government is also keen for commercial fleets , as well as the Commonwealth’s own Comcar network , to move to electric vehicles.

The Future Fuels Strategy discussion paper also warned about the potential impact of charging electric vehicles on the power grid.