Insights for Smothering Sales of Contraband Cigarettes

NACS Online
May 14

By analyzing the impact of tax and price changes on the cigarette market, policymakers can reduce the sales of illegal tobacco products in Canada.

TORONTO – Government efforts to tax cigarettes in Canada can have unintended consequences for tax revenues and the supply of contraband cigarettes, according to a report released last week by the C.D. Howe Institute.

In “A Taxing Dilemma: Assessing the Impact of Tax and Price Changes on the Tobacco Market,” Concordia University economists Ian Irvine and William Sims assess the effect of tax policy on tobacco use and, in particular, on prices and consumer choice between illegal and legal cigarettes.

The study notes that sales of contraband cigarettes in Canada constitute a sizable component of the tobacco market. This illegal trade is associated with a loss in tax revenue and an array of illicit activities that involve gangs and organized crime.

Various policy responses have been called for to counter this state of affairs. Increased policing and controls have resulted in the market share of the illegal product declining significantly to about 20% in 2010 from about one-third two years earlier.

To assess the influence of different policy approaches to the problem, the authors model consumer choices under four policy scenarios:

Decreasing taxes on the legal product.
Boosting the price of the illegal product through an intensified crackdown.
A combination of the above.
Or, decreasing the price of discount cigarettes closer to that of the contraband product.

Among the researchers’ main findings:

Tax reductions on legal cigarettes would have only a modest effect on the share of the illegal product, cause a decline in tax revenues and result in a small increase in total consumption.

For tax policy to drive out the illegal market, tax reductions would have to be substantial. But such tax reductions would reduce tax revenues dramatically and increase overall consumption.

However, if the price of the illegal product could be raised with extra legal or enforcement pressures on suppliers, then the market share of the illegal product would decline.

“We emphasize that tax policy should be based not only on its impact on the total quantity of cigarettes purchased, but also on the social, legal and enforcement costs associated with the illegal supply,” note the researchers.