Electric vehicle switch 'realistic and affordable': report

Angela Macdonald-Smith
Aug 12 2016
AFR
Australia could move to a 100 per cent electric vehicle fleet within 10 years at a maximum cost of $20 per person per week, with the possibility the massive transition could be done at no extra cost at all.
A new study has found that such a rapid and complete shift to electric vehicles, which would run on batteries fed by rooftop solar, is both “realistic and affordable”, given dramatically declining battery costs and sharply lower running and maintenance costs compared with conventional cars.
The report by science-based think tank Beyond Zero Emissions, to be released on Friday, found that using the most conservative estimates on price declines and higher oil prices, the transition to full EV use (Option 2) would cost just over $1200 billion between 2015 and 2035.
That’s about 25 per cent more than the “business as usual scenario” (Option 1), which involves a cost of $993 billion, mostly in maintenance costs for internal combustion engine cars, which are several times higher than for electric ones. The difference equates to $20 weekly per person.
Using more aggressive assumptions on price declines for batteries and higher prices for oil, the costs even out at about $1100 billion for both over 20 years, even if no incentives are put in place for consumers to switch.
A shift to 100 per cent EVs would eliminate at least 6 per cent of the country’s greenhouse emissions and have multiple other benefits such as improved urban air quality, reduced noise pollution, and lower oil import bills and health costs.
While the report could be seen as a theoretical exercise given the sluggish uptake of EVs so far in Australia, both Norway and the Netherlands are aiming to have 100 per cent EVs by 2025.
“In that situation it’s certainly not a theoretical scenario – there are countries doing this right now and Australia is being slow off the mark because at all levels of government we haven’t been quick enough to seize the various incentives that can be put in place,” Beyond Zero Emissions’ Stephen Bygrave said.
The release of the report is the latest move by EV proponents to try to persuade government to get on board with incentives to encourage the switch such as free parking, access to transit lanes and lower registration costs, policies that have driven a much more rapid uptake overseas.
AGL Energy earlier this year linked with Tesla Motors, TransGrid and others to push for policy support for EVs in Australia, where sales in 2014 were just 0.32 per cent of the global market.
BZE notes that prices of batteries are projected to fall by 20-60 per cent by 2020, beating even the rapid 30 per cent drop in prices for solar PV panels over the last five years. Typical town-dwelling Australians drive only about 35 kilometres a day, with most trips less than 5km, making them eminently suitable for EVs.
Switching the bus fleet to electric is also “feasible and affordable,” BZE found. On the most conservative assumptions that transition could cost 10 per cent more than business as usual, or 72c per person a week. In the low-cost scenario, it could be done for almost 30 per cent less.
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